In July, my country's total import and export value reached 3.27 trillion yuan, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 14 consecutive months

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7, my country's total import and export value in July was 3.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, and an increase of 18.8% over the same period in 2019.Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that in July, my country's foreign trade continued to maintain a good development trend, and the total value of imports and exports achieved positive year-on-year growth for the 14th consecutive month.

Since the beginning of this year, under the combined effect of multiple factors such as global supply and demand, my country's foreign trade has achieved sustained and rapid growth.From the perspective of trade mode, the import and export of general trade increased and the proportion increased.In the first seven months, the total value of my country's general trade imports and exports reached 13.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%. The proportion of trade increased by 1.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of processing trade fell by 2 percentage points during the same period.In terms of product structure, exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both increased.In the first seven months, my country exported 6.88 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 25.5%, accounting for 59% of the total export value.The export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, mobile phones, automobiles and other products has a good market performance.From the perspective of trading partners, imports and exports to major trading partners such as ASEAN, the European Union and the United States all increased.In addition, the data show that the import and export growth rate of private enterprises in my country is the fastest, and the proportion has further increased.In the first seven months, the import and export of private enterprises was 10.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, accounting for 47.9% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

On the import side, commodity imports were mixed in both volume and price.Among them, the import volume of iron ore, crude oil, coal and other commodities decreased and the price increased, the import volume of natural gas increased and the price decreased, and the import volume and price of soybean increased.

Regarding the month-on-month decline in the total value of imports and exports in July, Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, said that the drop in growth rate was mainly due to the sharp increase in the base in the third quarter of last year.The main problem facing exports in the second half of 2021 is the base, and July is considered to have experienced the initial test of the rise of the base platform.The final year-on-year performance was better than expected.

Li Kuiwen also analyzed that with the gradual increase of the base in the same period last year, the growth rate of foreign trade will drop in the second half of the year, and the future development of foreign trade will still face many uncertain and unstable factors.At present, the ups and downs of the global epidemic situation, the slow recovery of the world economy, coupled with high raw material prices and poor shipping logistics have squeezed the profit margins of foreign trade companies, and also affected the willingness of companies to accept orders.

'Some supply constraints since the beginning of the year, such as restrictions on shipping or containers, will also smooth demand fluctuations in the future. The rising fourth wave of the epidemic will bring some disturbances, but judging from the data in recent months, the vaccination rate is relatively high For Europe and the United States, the impact is still relatively small so far. In this context, although the acceleration period of exports has passed, the contraction period is not coming so fast. We estimate that China's exports will still be in a relatively prosperous range in the second half of this year. 'Guo Lei said.

In response to possible unfavorable factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and increased labor costs in the second half of the year, Li Xingqian, director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will further improve the trade policy toolbox, optimize the business environment, reduce enterprise costs, and support various market entities. In particular, the stable production of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises.

Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that the slight decline in the export boom is mainly due to the slightly lower-than-expected EU demand relay in the third quarter, and the quarter-on-quarter decline in imports is mainly due to the weakening of production and consumption demand caused by the recent domestic epidemic.The export substitution effect brought about by the blocked production in the ASEAN region will to some extent offset the drag on domestic exports caused by EU demand, and the export boom will continue.In terms of imports, the domestic epidemic risk is still relatively severe, but under the positive policy deployment emphasized by the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee, it is expected that the degree of impact will still be controllable, and the drag on imports will be limited.

Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank China, also told the Securities Times reporter that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee released a positive fiscal policy signal. It is expected that the issuance of local government bonds and the progress of budgetary investment will accelerate in the second half of the year to further promote public investment. .Deutsche Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.9% in 2021.In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may continue to climb. It is estimated that the GDP will increase by 1.7% in the third quarter and 1.8% in the fourth quarter.However, it cannot be ruled out that a new wave of epidemics will pose a downside risk to the Chinese economy in the second half of the year.